According to the latest data from Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, it is now “virtually certain” that 2024 will be the first year on record that breaches the 2015 Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5°C above pre-industrial (1850-1900) temperature levels. Scientists have already warned that at this threshold, the man-made climate crisis will go beyond the adaptive levels of humans and the environment.
Fossil fuel pollution, which traps the heat inside our atmosphere, is the primary driver behind this huge rise in global temperature. The El Niño weather pattern between June 2023 and April 2024 has only intensified the effect. Exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius can potentially increase the instances of devastating floods, cyclones, heat waves, and rising sea levels. In 2024, we have already seen unexpectedly destructive floods in Spain, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan, while heavy storms swept through central Europe and Australia. Even the US has experienced the most costly environmental crises over the past 12 months or so.
Almost every country in the world, through the Paris Agreement, has pledged to keep the average global temperature under the 1.5°C cap set by climate experts. However, the recent re-election of Mr. Trump could pose a hurdle in this agenda. In his previous term, the US president-elect, whose speeches closely resemble those of autocrats, rolled back many climate regulations set by the Obama administration. Mr. Trump has already vowed to go even further to undo the climate progress in the US and around the world.
As world leaders are attending the COP29 to discuss further steps to reduce carbon emissions to keep the average global temperature, it is uncertain how the second Trump administration will deal with the climate crisis. It is more concerning as the US is the second largest source of carbon emission in the world and their policies can have impacts throughout the globe. Rolling back green initiatives might have devastating effects on the environment, especially when ECCO think tank’s Alex Scott says, “We don’t have time to stop.”
